Prediction markets
Three venues
Read from each venue's own public data, with no key. We checked the other prediction venues against the same rules as our exchanges, and none passed yet.
Polymarket
International. Paired with Kalshi for cross routes, never with Polymarket US.
Polymarket US
For US residents only. Paired with Kalshi, never with Polymarket, as no one can use both.
Kalshi
A US exchange with its own list of closed countries. Paired with either Polymarket book.
Two kinds of route
Basket
Every outcome of one event on one venue, bought for less than the $1 the winning outcome pays. Only events the venue says have one winner, and only while every outcome is trading.
Cross route
The same question on two venues: yes on one, no on the other, for less than $1 a set. One leg pays whichever way it resolves, as long as both venues settle it the same way.
Verified or Caution
Only a Polymarket basket on an event where the exchange guarantees exactly one winner and that no outcome can be added.
Every cross route: each venue settles by its own rule text, two texts can resolve the same question differently, and then both legs lose. The route shows both rules side by side, with the sources they name. Kalshi and Polymarket US baskets are Caution too: Kalshi says at most one outcome wins, not that one must, and Polymarket US doesn't say.
Costs and yearly return
Each market's own fee
Each leg walks its own order book at your size and pays that market's published taker fee, rounded the way the venue rounds it. If nothing is left after fees, the route isn't shown.
Yearly return
Net divided by the whole days left to the latest leg's stated resolution, times 365, with no compounding. A market can resolve later than stated, which lowers the real return. It's for comparing routes, not a forecast.
Your country
Each leg is checked against the venue's own published rules and the billing country on your account. A leg closed to new positions there says so, a country open through the API only is marked, and a route with no open leg sorts last. With no billing country saved, nothing is marked.
Alerts
Set a rule by kind, venue, least net, least yearly return, most days to resolution or Verified only. Each route alerts once while it lasts, on the channels your plan has.
Name markets or keywords to hear of odds moves of at least 5 points within an hour, and of trades of at least $10,000 on the Polymarket markets we stream.
By plan
- Free: the top 10 baskets, 15 minutes behind.
- Starter: every basket, real-time.
- Pro Desk, VIP Quant and the trial: baskets and cross routes, real-time.
Every cost is counted once, and a route that can't be confirmed says why, as on every route. How we check every route
See today's prediction routes
7 days, full access, no card. It drops to Free on its own.
Market data tool, not financial advice. Net figures are estimates. Trading can lose money.